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27 May 2025

Tracking the Global Carbon Credit Market and Thailand’s Emerging Trading Landscape

Business ESG Solutions Sustainability Digitization

In an era where the climate crisis severely disrupts the world, nature, once abundant and a sanctuary for countless forms of life, is now facing destruction due to human consumption driven by a lack of awareness. As nature deteriorates, so too does our shield against natural disasters.

Humanity is now beginning to realize that a global temperature increases of just 1.5°C could bring devastation to all life. As a result, many countries are setting environmental goals, particularly by reducing greenhouse gas emissions—the main driver of global warming and natural disasters. This has led to the concept of “carbon credits,” now familiar to many.


The Origins of Carbon Credits

Back in 1997, 37 developed countries agreed to the Kyoto Protocol, established under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement required these countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% by 2012 and to continue with an 18% reduction by 2020 compared to 1990 levels.

Later, in 2015, countries reached a consensus on limiting the global temperature increase to no more than 1.5°C—identified as the Climate Tipping Point, where drastic changes to the planet’s ecosystems would occur. This led to the Paris Agreement, which set goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and introduced the Emission Trading System (ETS). Under this system, entities that emit less than their allowable limit can sell their surplus allowance to others—a mechanism known as carbon credits.

What Carbon Credits Mean for All of Us

A carbon credit refers to the reduction or capture of greenhouse gas emissions through activities aimed at reducing such emissions. The unit of measurement is tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2eq). A carbon credit represents the right to offset emissions and can be traded on carbon markets at both the organisational and national levels.

Carbon credit trading introduces market mechanisms to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, making emissions financially accountable and encouraging concrete environmental responsibility. This contrasts with the past, when businesses could emit greenhouse gases without oversight, leading to global harm.

Carbon Credit Trading

Mandatory Carbon Market: This market operates under legal frameworks, typically in developed countries that signed the Kyoto Protocol. These nations have clear laws regulating emissions and carbon trading. Entities emitting less than their quotas can sell their excess allowances.


Examples:

    • European Union (EU ETS): Requires power plants to reduce emissions or buy credits from low-emission companies.
    • California: Legally mandates energy and transport companies to participate in carbon trading.

Voluntary Carbon Market: This market involves voluntary participation by organizations or businesses that wish to offset emissions, without legal obligation.


Examples:

    • Google and Microsoft purchase carbon credits to achieve carbon neutrality.
    • Airlines like Delta and Etihad include carbon credits in ticket prices to offset flight emissions.
    • Companies like Starbucks and Patagonia buy credits from reforestation projects to minimize their environmental impact.

Trends in Carbon Credit Trading

When discussing carbon credit markets, the voluntary market often serves as a reference for global trends, reflecting growing awareness of emissions.

According to The Business Research Company, the voluntary carbon market has grown rapidly in recent years. In 2024, the market value was USD 1.55 billion, projected to rise to USD 1.89 billion in 2025, and to USD 4.13 billion by 2029—with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.6%. This growth indicates stronger global measures toward carbon neutrality.

In Thailand, from 2016 to April 2024, a total of 3,258,033 tCO2eq in carbon credits were traded, valued at 292 million THB, with an average price of 89.6 THB per ton. Although the Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (TGO) and other entities are actively promoting carbon neutrality, the current trading volume accounts for only 0.77% of Thailand’s total emissions—highlighting the need for further action to meet the 2050 neutrality goal.

Forest Carbon Credit Projects

One of the most popular types of carbon credit projects in Thailand is forest-based carbon credits, as they benefit both the environment and local economies. These projects support ecosystems, serve as food and water sources, prevent natural disasters, and absorb pollutants.

Reforestation projects for carbon credits act as nature-based solutions that capture and store atmospheric greenhouse gases. These projects must be certified by regulatory bodies to be eligible for trading.

CERT+: Elevating Forest Carbon Credit Solutions

Thailand’s relatively small carbon trading volume presents an opportunity to develop robust carbon credit platforms. One such platform is CERT+, a startup within SCGC, which leverages technology to simplify and optimise forest-based carbon credit projects.

Using satellite imagery and AI, CERT+ converts 2D images into 3D data (e.g., tree height and canopy width) to estimate carbon accumulation in near real-time, enhancing the accuracy of credit calculations.

CERT+ offers two main services:

    • Monitoring & Surveillance via CERT+ Insight Platform: Users input site data, and the platform estimates tree growth, biomass, and carbon stock. It also alerts users to changes such as species loss, wildfire risk, and weather, supporting better land management. Currently available for eucalyptus, teak, and natural forests.
    • Detailed Carbon Estimation: Provides precise carbon stock data for use in carbon credit projects, currently focused on eucalyptus, with expansion plans in progress. Charged annually or per use.

CERT+ has been certified by the Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization (TGO), allowing its data to be used in carbon credit trading or in organizational emissions reports. Learn more at https://www.certplus.ai/

SCGC not only promotes carbon neutrality through innovation like CERT+, but also applies this tech in community conservation efforts. In Khao Yai Da, Rayong Province, forest carbon stock measured in January 2025 reached 2,500,402 tCO2eq, showcasing healthy forest conditions and guiding ongoing local conservation efforts. The goal is for Khao Yai Da to remain a vital "green lung" and a watershed for nearby communities.

Carbon credit trading is one tool for offsetting emissions, but the most crucial action is still reducing emissions at the source—by using resources wisely, minimizing new production, and protecting the environment for future generations.

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